Measuring the Future of Our Coastline: Mathematical Prediction of Sea Level Rise in Manila, Philippines
Keywords:
Sea level rise, Manila, Philippines, mathematical formula, historical data, quantitative researchAbstract
This research aims to determine the projected level of sea level rise in Manila in the Philippines using a mathematical formula based on historical data regarding projected levels of sea level rise in Manila. The formula to be used in determining or projecting levels of sea level rise for any intended year is S(y) = 7750 + 8.4(y – 2025), in which 7750 mm is shown to be the level of sea level in the base year measurements in a fixed formula to be calculated for any projected year. This study uses a quantitative research computation system in projecting what might happen to the sea level in Manila. The study's independent variable is either the projected year for computation or/and the slope in projecting levels of sea level changes in Manila in any manner projected for computation. The dependent variable is how much in actual measurements should be projected for computation in Manila in any manner projected for computation. The constant in this computation is shown to be in fixed measurements at 7750 mm for historical measurements for sea level in Manila in any computation for any projected year. Various studies from around the world from The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2023), Climate Tracker Asia (2023), and PAGASA (2024) have shown or indicated that the Philippines maintains one of the highest rates of sea level rise in the world at 5.7 to 8.4 mm per year in comparison to the world at 3.3 per year.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Tichina Chris T. Gerson, Althea Dece B. Galay, Dorothy T. Ochavillo (Author)
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