A Windy Sabotage: Determining the Area of Jeopardy Inflicted by a Wildfire Under the Influence of Wind Through a Mathematical Approach
Keywords:
Wildfire Spread, Wind-driven Fires, Rate of spread (ROS), Elliptical fire growth, Area of jeopardyAbstract
This study looks at how wind affects the spread of wildfires and creates a simple mathematical model to estimate the area that fires driven by wind can affect. Using real wildfire events from Santa Ana, Canada, the research focuses on wind speed as the main factor influencing fire spread. The model uses basic geometry and rate of spread formulas to calculate the burned area and represents fire growth as an ellipse, which helps determine how far the fire moves, which areas are affected, and how quickly it could reach nearby communities. The results show that as wind speed increases, fire spreads faster and burns a larger area, showing clearly that wind is a key factor in wildfire behavior. While the model does not include some real-world factors, such as changes in humidity, temperature, or uneven terrain, it provides a simple and practical way to estimate fire spread. This makes it useful for basic predictions, learning purposes, and raising awareness in communities. The study highlights the importance of using wind information in wildfire planning to better assess risks, prepare communities, and support emergency response. By understanding how wind influences wildfire movement, local authorities and residents can make more informed decisions about safety measures, evacuation plans, and resource allocation. Overall, this simplified approach offers a helpful starting point for understanding wildfire dynamics and shows why wind data should be included in fire preparedness strategies to reduce danger and improve response.
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