Burning Sweetness: Analyzing the Impact of High Heat Index on Yield and Provincial Contributions in the Sugarcane Industry of the Philippines

Abstract

This study examines how the Philippines' heat index affects the country's sugarcane production, concentrating on the provinces of Negros Occidental and Negros Oriental, which are important to the nation's sugar sector. The growth of sugarcane has been badly impacted by rising temperatures brought on by climate change, which has resulted in a gradual drop in production. This study evaluates the relationship between heat index and sugarcane yield using data from November 2022 to June 2024. It does this by using a mathematical formula to calculate the heat index's Rate of Negative Impact (RNI). Taking into account a threshold temperature of 25°C, which is ideal for sugarcane development, the formula is utilized to determine the new contribution percentages of each province to the overall sugar sector. The findings show a clear relationship between decreasing productivity and rising heat indices. For instance, in Negros Occidental, the province's share decreased from 43.2% in November 2022 to 24% by June 2024 as a result of the heat index rising above recommended levels. Similar trends were seen in Negros Oriental, where donations decreased from 7.6% in November 2023 to 3.6% in May 2024. These results demonstrate how sensitive sugarcane production is to temperature increases, demonstrating that greater heat indices result in lower yields and detrimental effects on the economies of communities that depend on this industry. To ensure the sustainability of the sugarcane sector and the livelihood of people who depend on its success, this study emphasizes the significance of climate adaption measures.